The re-election of Ismail Omar Guelleh as President of Djibouti on April 10, 2026, has sparked a heated and controversial debate across the continent and beyond about Africa’s longest-serving Presidents and how their tenures are extended against the will of the people. Many political scientists argue that the longevity of many African Presidents’ tenures does not reflect the will of the people, as it is conferred every five years through the ritualistic conduct of elections rather than through effective political development and the tangible institutionalisation of democracy that allows the will of the people to determine the legitimacy of the elected governments.
For example, Akinola and Makombe (2022: 4) assert that, in the African context, beyond majoritarian rule, democracy is often understood to be ritualistically associated with holding free and fair elections (through the will of the electorate, not the political elites). Beyond that five-year ritual, democracy must be consolidated in ways that create opportunities for the people’s inclusive voice to be heard and for the delivery of people’s aspirations to be realised. Akinola and Makombe further argue that “the failures of African states to deliver on the promises of democracy have led to mass disillusionment, political apathy, and disconnection of social contact between the state and its citizens”. Therefore, this article dissects and analyses the historical evolution of Djibouti’s political system and the incumbent President’s successive re-elections.
The re-elected Guelleh, who is 78 years old, has been the president of Djibouti since 1999, after being handpicked by his uncle, Hassan Gouled Aptidon of the political party called People’s Rally for Progress (PPR), to succeed him as president. Aptidon became the first president of Djibouti after it attained independence from France in 1977. It has been posited that both are from the Issa ethnic group, which has monopolised political and economic power in Djibouti for more than four decades, oppressing the second-largest ethnic group, the Afar people, and others.
Djibouti is one of Africa’s smallest countries, located in the Horn of Africa, at the eastern part of the continent. It has a population of about one million, and in the recent Presidential elections last week, only 256,000 registered to vote. The fact that the state-owned media and the electoral commission declared Guelleh the winner with 97,81%, almost the same margin he got in the 2021 general elections, and that his opposition leader, Mohamed Farah Samatar of the smallest party, the Unified Democratic Centre (UDC), received only 2,19% of the votes. According to state-owned media and not multi-media, the voter turnout was about 80%.
State-owned media announced the election results amid the suppression of press freedom and dissenting views. In that country, the multi-party system is questionable because the two major opposition parties, the Union for Democratic Change (UDC) and the Union for Democratic Movement (UDM), have since 2016 boycotted, and continue to boycott, participating in elections. In their view, the governing party, PPR, and its coalition, the Union for a presidential majority, continue to use state power to interfere in the affairs of what was supposed to be an independent electoral commission, and law enforcement agencies are used to suppress those who dare to challenge the hegemony of the leading political elites. It must be understood that where there is no freedom of the press, citizens are not empowered to make informed decisions. In the absence of a conducive environment for freedom of political association and in the face of vote rigging, the will of the people is compromised, and the will of the ruling class advances. This is a pure utilisation of the state as an instrument of class oppression for the benefit of the political elites, who are captured by the captains of industries.This country is also located along the Gulf of Aden at the entrance to the Red Sea, and it borders the busiest Suez Canal (Shipping routes), which facilitates trade.
This small country hosts military bases of foreign countries such as the United States, France, Italy, China, and Japan; therefore, 70% of its revenue is generated through port trade and tariffs on goods hosted at the bases and the transit of goods. However, the generated revenue is not translated into the amelioration of the people’s living conditions. It benefits only the few associated with the ruling political elites and the clan. For instance, its unemployment is above 40% and amongst the youth, it is almost 70%, it has been reported that clan-based discrimination and rampant corruption have become the defining features of the state institutions.
On the other hand, in 2010, the political elites decided to amend the constitution in a section that deals with presidential term limits, and further amended it in October 2025 to remove the age limit; previously, the constitution barred a person of above 75 years of age to be the president, the amendment was done to allow the incumbent to contest for his sixth term and unfortunately the ordinary working class and the poor were never consulted.
This autocratic behaviour and abuse of state power were demonstrated in 2020, when peaceful protesters, calling for an overhaul of the electoral commission and the release of the then-arrested former air force pilot, who had been arrested for exposing corruption and the ethnicisation of the state institutions and political system, faced police brutality; this was one way to silence critical voices that opposed the dominant political faction. However, President Guelleh boasts that under his leadership, Djibouti is one of the most stable countries in the region; by contrast, Samaira Gaid, a regional security analyst, argues that the presence of foreign military bases serves as a form of intimidation and enables the PPR’s prolonged tenure and that of its president.
Should all the above political developments and allegations prove to be true, it would therefore be an indictment on the African Union (AU) because it would mean the Djiboutian government has infringed on critical sections of the AU Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (2007) as well as the AU Declaration on Principles Governing Democratic elections in Africa (2002).
I think the Chairperson of the AU Commission should refrain from hastily endorsing election results without first receiving concrete reports from exploratory missions and election observers, so that, if need be, when allegations of rigging are presented, an investigation can be conducted before the AU declares and endorses the outcome of any country’s election. It might be that the AU’s approach is fuelling the emergence of coups on the continent. I therefore propose that the same zeal and spirit that the AU uses to reprimand those who unconstitutionally change the government be applied equally to those who infringe upon the AU Charter and Declaration.
Orapeleng Matshediso is a master’s graduate of Pan African Development Studies and a Research Fellow at the University of Johannesburg (Institute for Pan African Thought and Conversation). The author is also an alumnus of the then Thabo Mbeki African Leadership Institute (TMALI).
